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PREVIEW - 2000 AMA/Progressive Insurance U,S. Flat Track Championship Series By Seorl T ROUSSFAU he first professional dirt track racing season of the new millennium is shaping up to be more complicated than an algebraic equation, full of probabilities, possibilities and variables that are likely to pencil out to just one thing: change. That's right, change is definiteiy in the wind for the nation's top milers, half-milers, IT and short track specialists. The biggest variable is, of course, the PACE factor. The longtime Supercross (and now road racing) promoter has sent shock waves through the dirt track community with its reported - though not official - purchase of the promotional rights to all events formerly handled by West Coast ringmaster Chris. Agajanian, and its pending though not officiai - announcement of a financially lucrative and structurally innovative 12to 15-race dirt track series that wili offer AMA Grand National stalwarts a choice of where they want to conduct their business. In the unlikely event that the PACE dates do not conflict with the 15 or so dates already on the AMA schedule, then the racers will have more choices to run more times for more money than the sport has seen in years. If conflicts arise, then the racers will still have a choice. It might come down to defending the number-one plate for some and filling the dinner plate for others. Either way, the fans stand to be the biggest winners, as dirt track racing gears up to play in more venues than ever before. But since PACE Motor Sports has not yet declared its intentions, the future of the sport is still shrouded in mystery, a difficult equation to solve. So, for this year - and it may be the last time we can do this - we will go with the probabilities and the possibilities for the AMA Progressive Insurance U.S. Flat Track Championships, which is the shiny new name for the AMA Grand National Dirt Track Series. In all probability, defending series champion Chris Carr will retain his title in that series, however many races it is and whomever shows up to contest it. Regardless of what happens later, Chris Carr is the king of the mountain in dirt track racing right now. Rider: Chris Carr National #: 1 Team: Harley-Davidson of Sacramento Age: 32 Residence: Fleetwood, Pennsylvania Career best result: AMA Grand National Champion (1992, 1999) 1999 best finish: First place (Lima Half Mile, Indy Mile, Oklahoma City Half Mile, Peoria IT, Sacramento Mile) 1999 result: AMA Grand National Champion 2000 program: Two HarleyDavidson XR750s and one spare engine at the races ("We don't want to talk too much about our arsenal," Carr said.); two 600s. All machinery built and maintained by Kenny Tolbert and team assistant Travis Smith. Personal prediction for the top three: 1. Chris Carr; 2. Will Davis; 3. Rich King. Rider: Rich King National #: 80 Team: Team Harley-Davidson Age: 36 Residence: Waterloo, Iowa Career best result: Second place (1995, 1999) 1999 best finish: First place (Mineral Wells Half Mile, Rapid City Half Mile, Sedalia Half Mile, Springfield Mile) 1999 result: Second place 2000 program: Three factory Harley-Davidson XR750s at the races when solo (two when Scott Parker joins the team); four 600s (or two if Parker races). All equipment prepared by Bill Werner and Craig Lager. Additional crew support by Pete Pulskee. Personal prediction for the top three: 1. Rich King; 2. Chris Carr; 3. Will Davis. arr slapped a little egg on my face in '99. I challenged him to prove me wrong and take the title away from nine-time champion Scott Parker, and that's just what he did. His performance was typical Carr in its consistency, but that consistency included a quintet of victories that overwhelmed Parker, who was struggling through a subpar year. And this time there were no gimmies, controversies or bizarre circumstances to taint the brilliance of it all. Carr and tuner Kenny Tolbert simply formulated a plan and stuck to it, earning their second Grand National crown and creating a boon for the series by keeping the number-one plate from going vacant. There is no reason why he shouldn't do it again, unless he elects to chase dollars instead of points. It is a possibility that Carr says he hasn't ruled out, and that he will do what is best for his family, his team and his sponsors. Wherever he goes, there is no question that he has the tools and the talent to win a championship again. C cycllll n eVIl's y pick for first alternate and probably the best bet for perfect attendance at the AMA races - is Rich King, who, without question, has the talent and now the resources to give Carr every bit the battle that former Team Harley-Davidson stud Scott Parker did. Already a successful privateer with Corbin Racing, he stonmed to four wins last season, including the Springfield Mile. I believe that he can improve on that performance with the factory. The biggest difference is that this year will mark the first in some time that he has not carried any responsibility for the preparation of his own equipment, and who better to handle the tuning chores than a 13-time Grand National winning wrench-spinner like Bill Werner? Some skeptics think that there may be just enough of an initial bonding period to prevent an effective full-scale orangeand-black title assault right out of the gate, and they have also posed the question: What will happen when Scott Parker noses around for a race or two? I'm betting that neither of these will be as big of a setback as King winning a tainted title because other key players missed a race or two. Know what I mean? Rider: Joe Kopp National #: 43 Team: Corbin Racing/H-D of Missouri/Burks Motorsports Age: 30 Residence: Mica, Washington Career best result: Fourth place (1996) . 1999 best finish: First place (Dallas Mile) 1999 result: Fifth place 2000 program: Three Carl Patrick-motored HarleyDavidson XR750s built and maintained by Dave Burks and Dennis Town; two 600s built and maintained by Denny Lapp. Additional crew support by Ken Cool beth Sr. and Darrell Jones. Personal prediction for top three: 1. Chris Carr; 2. Rich King; 3. Joe Kopp. T M Rider: Will Davis National #: 21 Team: www.fasthog.com Age: 35ยท Residence: Goldsboro, North Carolina Career best result: Second place (1997) 1999 best finish: First place (Joliet Half Mile, Las Vegas Half Mile) 1999 result: Third place 2000 program: Four HarleyDavidson XR750s (two milers and two half-milers); two 600s. All equipment prepared and maintained by Mike Wheeler. Additional crew support by Pat Moroney, Bob Weiss and Stan Garvilla. Personal prediction for the top three: 1. Will Davis; 2. Chris Carr; 3. Rich King. B his guy has really played musical rides in the last five years that I have been covering AMA Grand National shows. He has gone from Rogers Racing to TCR to Eaken Racing and now finds himself on the hot seat at Moroney's Harley-Davidson. Whatever the reasons have been for his departure from each team, I'm fairly certain that the reason Will Davis has landed other marquis rides is because he is one of the best half-milers in the sport. Despite the unfamHiarity of a new team last sea~ son, he acquitted himself well, rolling to a win at Joliet and rumblin', bumblin' and stumblin' through the potholes and craters at Las Vegas to add two more wins and a solid third-place series finish to his resume. With Mike Wheeler spinning wrenches and Pat Moroney spinning the finances through his new www.fasthog.com venture, this team looks as solid - at least on paper - as any that Davis has ever had. But if a championship is in the works, then winning on the miles is a must, even on a half-mile dominated schedule. Sorry, Will, but I'm not going to change my mind on that one until I see someone win the title without winning a mile. You get one this year, and you're a good bet for the plate no matter whose series name is on it. y the time you read this, Corbin Racing will have announced its allegiance with the Harley-Davidson of Missouri/Burks Motorsports team, which means that people had better be watching out for Joe Kopp. Already a solid performer on the series for the past four seasons, the former Peoria TT winner shook a bit of a monkey off his back by already winning a mile (if that's what you wanted to call the Dallas race) last season, and held off a determined Bryan Bigelow to land the fifth spot. The added financial support from Corbin can only help to ensure that the Washingtonian has enough resources to make a good run for any championship, but all of Corbin's horses and all of Corbin's men can't keep Kopp from getting aced out of the occasional main event. I'm betting that doesn't happen as much this year, and I'm betting that the worst he's going to do is fourth. Rider: Bryan Bigelow National #: 11 Team: USC Racing/Lancaster Harley-Davidson Age: 19 Residence: Au Gres, Michigan Career best result: Sixth place (1999)